The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

Abstract

Coffee is an annual crop sensitive to climate variability. Most Indonesian coffee is cultivated on marginal lands that are vulnerable to environmental chang es, including climate. Indonesia’s climate variability is influenced by several factors, including the monsoon, local aspects, and global climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is crucial to identify the impacts of climate variability on both the production and the economy to develop adaptative measures. This study aims to determine the effects of global climate variability, namely ENSO and IOD, on coffee production in several Indonesian production centers. It uses annual coffee production data in the five major production centers in Indonesia. The ENSO indicators used in this study were the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 region and the IOD indicator in the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The anomaly analysis approach between neutral years and the extreme ENSO and between normal and IOD extreme phases were applied in this study. The results showed that the effects of ENSO and IOD were different in each region. The highest decline in production occurred in the La-Nina year in almost all production centers. The decline in output in the La-Nina year ranged from 6 to 22%. Meanwhile, the IOD that had a decreasing effect on production was positive IOD with a decrease ranging from 1 to 15%.